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Forest

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Coronavirus is an enveloped positive sense RNA virus that represents a zoonotic infection with asuspected origin Wuhan, China (Hubei Province). Zoonotic infection implies transmission from animals(fruit bat) to humans, however, subsequent human to human transmission is generally less virulent. Apandemic means spreading of infection beyond the baseline incidence rate as a new virus introducedinto a new population can spread within and between populations. However, a pandemic does notspeak to the severity of the illness. The Coronavirus can manifest itself in multiple forms: asymptomatic,mild disease, serious pneumonia or ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome), which is lifethreatening. A pandemic often creates a crisis, thus making decisions with incomplete informationutilizing "experts" to try and do the most good for most of the population. However, there are a few bigpicture points of view I think are worth considering. No pun intended, but just take a breath. Therestriction of international travel is necessary in combatting pandemics. The travel between hot spotswithin the United States and the rest of the country seemed inconsistent and not uniformly applied.The early predictions based on epidemiologic models forecasted significant death 2.2 million in theUnited States and 500 thousand in the United Kingdom. The model depicted the Coronavirus as bothhighly contagious and as a highly virulent deadly pathogen. Usually contagiousness the ability to spreadfrom one person to another is not frequently seen in the highly deadly viruses like Ebola or Marburghemorrhagic fever viruses. If there was someone with Ebola virus, the entire community is notquarantined and can conduct their daily activities without fear of becoming infected. However, highlycontagious diseases measles, chickenpox, whooping cough and rotovirus may easily spread betweenpersons, but with appropriate and timely supportive care most persons are expected to do well (not tosay there cannot be adverse outcomes). The point is that both highly contagious and deadly combinedcharacteristics of a pathogen are rare occurrences and represent the exception rather than the rule.Finally, advice from an expert needs to be kept in perspective as pre-reflective thinking is the worst kindof evidence as when an expert in something is a asked a question that really is not their expertise, butan answer is given that adds little to the truth of the discussion. Moreover, what really applies to theCoronavirus Pandemic is from the words of Albert Einstein who once said: "Not everything that countscan be counted ; And not everything that can be counted counts.

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